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The release by the ABS of the original December regional labour force data allows us to update our own Conus/CBC Staff Selection Employment Trend series for the SA4 regions in QLD.
What we see, once again, is the regions doing better than Greater Brisbane. With the ABS Trend unemployment rate for the state at 6.2% our own series shows Trend unemployment in Greater Brisbane at 6.4% (up from 5.7% a year earlier) while in the Rest of Queensland it is now 5.9% (down 0.3% for the year). Trend employment growth has been much stronger in the regions (+31,600 for the year at a rate of 2.6%) than in Greater Brisbane (+3,700 at a rate of just 0.3%). However, this hides the fact that the weaker growth in the capital has been due to shifts from part-time to full-time employment; part-time employment has fallen 7,500 over the year with gains of 11,200 in full-time. In the regions the greatest growth has been in part-time employment (up 17,500) although full-time positions are also up firmly (+14,100).
In our own region we see the Cairns Trend unemployment rate drop to 5.0% (after some sharp downward revisions to back months). However, before getting too excited we should acknowledge that the decline is due to a fall in participation with Trend employment actually dipping very slightly (-100) for the month. Nevertheless the region has added 3,100 to Trend employment over the course of the past 12 months (at a rate of 2.7%) although all of this has been in part-time positions (+5,600) with full-time down 2,400.
Over the course of the year Trend participation has remained largely unchanged in Cairns so the net result is certainly a positive one for the region. However, we would note that some recently very low original unemployment rates, if reversed in coming months, could well see the Trend unemployment rate move back closer to the 6% level.
In Townsville the Trend unemployment rate has also moved significantly lower over the year and now stands at 6.1%. However, Trend employment growth has also turned negative this month (albeit only by 100 or 0.1%); the sharp decline in participation has seen both employment and unemployment drop. Trend employment levels remain weak in Townsville and it is hard to see how the unemployment rate cannot rise again when we see the participation rate start to recover. Improvements have certainly been made over recent years from the dire situation not so long ago, but it is too early to declare Townsville out of the woods.
The full Conus/CBC Staff Selection Employment Trend data is available for download below. Feel free to use this data but kindly acknowledge Conus/CBC Staff Selection when you do so.
Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend Employment QLD – Dec 2018
We are proud to have CBC Staff Selection as supporters of the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend Employment and Jobseeker data series