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Today saw the release of the Feb monthly Regional Labour Force and the quarterly regional Industry employment data. Both data-sets are best seen through the lens of the Conus Trend series, so we shall start with the monthly data.
Employment growth across QLD remains strong at 4.7% y/y (see here for analysis of the national and QLD data from last week) although when we consider the split across the State we see Conus Trend employment growth in Greater Brisbane (4.9%) outpacing that in the Rest of Queensland (4.4%). Where the Rest of Queensland is doing better is in the rate at which full-time employment is increasing (5.5%) versus 5.0% in Greater Brisbane. The Conus Trend unemployment rate in Greater Brisbane sits at 6.0% while it’s at 6.1% in the Rest of Queensland.
Across the State the unemployed are taking a median of 20 weeks to find work while in Greater Brisbane that period is just 18 weeks; it’s 21 weeks in the Rest of Queensland (all figures are Conus Trend).
Looking at our own region in more detail we see that in Cairns Conus Trend employment dipped again in Feb (down 200) and is now up just 800 from a year ago; a Trend employment growth rate of just 0.7%. However, Trend full-time employment is up 3,400 for the year and increasing at a rate closer to State wide averages (5.2%) of 4.4%. The Trend unemployment rate remains unchanged at 6.5% (Jan was revised up from 6.2%). Job hunters are looking for work for a median of 24 weeks in Cairns. The Trend youth unemployment rate has ticked slightly higher to 17.7% despite the number of young people (15-24) employed increasing by 4,300 over the year as participation has increased in this demographic.
To our South in Townsville a small increase in Trend employment (+300) this month was not enough to see the Trend unemployment rate budge; it remains at 9.4%. However, over the year Townsville has added 7,900 to the number employed at a rate of 7.9% y/y. Unlike in Cairns, the rate of growth of full-time positions (while strong) has been somewhat lower at 5.9% adding 4,100 to full-time employment. Youth unemployment is at a Trend rate of 17.6% with this sector having gained 3,300 employed over the year.
When we consider the quarterly Industry employment data we will again focus on the Conus Trend series which is derived from a dis-aggregation of the ABS 4 quarters average data.
At a State level the big winner industry over the past 12 months has been Healthcare and Social Assistance where a Trend 36,600 have been added to employment. Of these 21,300 were in Greater Brisbane while the Rest of Queensland has added 15,300. Retail has also seen an increase (+16,000) with most of those gains coming in Greater Brisbane (+9,600).
In our own areas Cairns saw solid growth is Healthcare and Social Assistance (+2,300) with only a few sectors going backwards (Education and Training down 1,200 and Retail down 800).
Healthcare and Social Assistance is now the largest employer in Cairns at 16,700 with Retail now a distant second at 12,700.
Over the past year Townsville also saw good growth in Conus Trend employment in Healthcare & Social Assistance (up 4,600), Retail (up 2,300) and Education and Training (up 2,200). The only sector with notable declines was Accommodation & Food which fell 900.
As is the case in Cairns, Healthcare & Social Assistance is the biggest employing industry (20,200) with Retail in a distant second place (12,600).
The full set of Conus Trend Regional Employment data for Queensland is available for download below. Please feel free to use this data (for non-commercial purposes) but we would appreciate yo acknowledging Conus when you do so. The Conus Trend Regional Industry Employment data-set is available by request.
Conus Trend Regional Employment QLD – Feb 2018
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