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Data for Nov released by the ABS today shows the headline unemployment rate nudged up to 6.3% (from 6.2%) despite stronger than expected jobs growth. The labour market added 42,700 new jobs in Nov, although almost all of these (40,800) were part-time. The rather less volatile Trend series showed the unemployment rate also at 6.3% with employment growth of 7,100. This level of employment growth, which has been fairly stable for the past 3 months, means that Trend employment is growing at just 1.2% pa; below the level needed to maintain (let alone reduce) the unemployment rate when the Trend working population is growing at about 1.8% pa.
For the first time in 5 months QLD recorded positive seasonally adjusted jobs growth (albeit only 900), although full-time employment fell back again after a rise last month. The headline unemployment rate fell to 6.9% (from 7.1%) with the Participation Rate falling back slightly to 65.3. The Trend series, however, paints a picture of continued weakness. Trend employment fell by 5,500 which is the 6th consecutive month of declines. With the Trend working population growing at 1.9%, employment growth is at a standstill (Trend employment is up by just 200 over the year, or 0.01%). The relatively stronger seasonally adjusted data for Nov certainly doesn’t point to any kind of turn-around in QLD just yet.
Next week will see the release of the ABS data for regional labour forces at which point we will be updating our Conus Trend series.
We are proud to have CBC Staff Selection as supporters of the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend Employment and Jobseeker data series