Yesterday afternoon saw the Queensland Treasury release their estimate of Gross State Product for the March quarter. While the ABS provide estimates for the domestic side of the State’s economy each quarter (and we will see the Q2 data tomorrow along with the annual 2019/20 figure) we have to rely on the Queensland Treasury estimates for the intervening quarters. As the chart below makes clear, there can be variations between the Treasury and ABS estimates; although we will generally see these differences revised away in subsequent quarters.
Yesterday’s release showed the domestic side of the QLD economy contracting by 0.6% q/q (Treasury) which was somewhat more than the original ABS estimate of a 0.3% decline. However the year-on-year increases were broadly in-line with Treasury data showing a 0.5% y/y increase compared to 0.6% y/y from the ABS. Tomorrow’s release may well see this ABS figure revised.
When we add in the external side of the state economy we see a 0.3% q/q drop in Gross State Product which equates to a 2.0% increase year-on-year (+2.1% annual). The q/q decline is the same as at the national level in Q1 while the year-on-year figure is better than the 1.4% y/y increase seen across the nation in Q1 (although this may well be revised tomorrow).
While tomorrow’s release will certainly confirm the Australian economy saw a GDP decline in Q2 we will have to extrapolate from the annual 2019/20 figures for QLD to get an idea of how severe the contraction might have been in Queensland (we will not see this data from the ABS until November and Treasury’s estimate for another three months).