The ABS Overseas Arrivals and Departures data for November, released this morning, shows short term arrivals to Australia growing at 4.4% y/y (seasonally adjusted). Departures (original data) are up 4.0% annually and have been growing at close to this rate for the past year.
The rapid growth we have been seeing in the Chinese market has slowed sharply and at +4.7% (sa) and +4.8% (Trend) now sits at a near-9-year low growth rate; monthly Trend arrivals from China have now fallen for 4 consecutive months.
The data today also provides original, unadjusted data (we create our own Conus Trend data from the original) on the State of Intended Stay of these short term visitors. While this is not the same as the International Visitor Survey data (see here for the latest commentary on the Sept data) it does at least provide us with some insight, on a more timely basis, of what international tourism data at the state level might look like; and it’s not happy reading for Queensland.
For the fifth consecutive month the Trend shows a decline for the month down to 163,567 (this stood 3.6% higher at 169,605 in June 2018). Year on year growth to Queensland has fallen to 1.0% and is now the second weakest pace of growth behind NT (-19.2%) and lags badly behind Victoria (+10.1%), which continues to move ahead strongly. This data suggests that the Dec quarter IVS data (likely released in March) will not reverse Queensland’s relative under-performance in the international visitor market.