International arrivals still growing; QLD gets its mojo back while Tassie slows

The release by the ABS of August short term arrivals and departures data shows total (seasonally adjusted) international short term arrivals into Australia was up 5.6% from a year ago while the annual total is up 5.2%.

The growth from the Chinese market has continued to slow sharply (although it’s still growing) and is up 2.3% y/y (s.a.) or 2.6% y/y (Trend); the annual totals up 7.7% (s.a.) and 8.1% (Trend). While still strong these rates of growth for Chinese arrivals are now the slowest in 9 years.

When we consider the data on state of intended stay (which we Trend based on the unadjusted original ABS data) we see that year on year growth for Queensland is at its fastest pace in more than 2 years (+10.4%) while it’s up 6.8% for the annual total. Growth in the Sunshine State continues to lag that in Victoria (+11.3% y/y and +7.9% annual) as the gap between the two states widens further.

Tasmania, which has been the stand-out performer for the past few years, has slowed sharply. Indeed the year-on-year Trend now shows a 1.3% decline while the annual total remains 24.3% above where it stood a year earlier.

We are still waiting for the delayed International Visitor Survey results for the June quarter, which will allow us to look more closely at regional performance.

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