Building Approvals continue to drift lower. In QLD it’s mainly houses falling

Posted on August 30, 2018 by Pete Faulkner - Building Approvals, QLD, Uncategorized

ABS data for July residential building approvals show them down 5.2% m/m, -5.6% y/y (seasonally adjusted) after a solid move higher last month (which was revised slightly higher still). The less volatile Trend series shows a m/m decline of 1.3%, down 2.5% y/y; this is the first year-on-year decline in the Trend for 11 months. This has been driven largely by declines in unit approvals (down 4.5%) while house approvals have also fallen slightly (down 0.8%).

In Queensland, after a huge jump last month in the seasonally adjusted data (which was revised even stronger) we see a m/m decline of 6.0% which brings the year-on-year increase to 7.1%. We much prefer the Trend series (particularly at the state level) which shows a 0.3% m/m drop for a 1.9% decline over the year. Unlike at the national level, in Queensland the bigger falls have been seen in house approvals (down 2.7% y/y) while unit approvals are down just 0.8% y/y.

Regional data will be released next week at which point we will be updating the Conus Trend Regional Building Approvals series.