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Today saw the release of the monthly ABS regional labour market data. As always, we prefer to see the data through the lens of the Trend (which as of this month is the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Employment Trend series after Cairns business CBC Staff Selection joined us to help improve and develop this data-set).
The Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend employment data shows that in March, once again, employment in the Cairns SA4 region dipped; this month by 300 and is now down 600 (or 0.6%) for the year. Employment growth has been slowing sharply in Cairns for the past 9 months but this is the first time it has dipped into negative territory since mid-2016. The dip in employment sees the Trend unemployment rate lift to 6.9% despite a further fall in participation. This is now the highest rate of unemployment in Cairns since Sept 2016. Full-time employment has fallen over the year (down 1,200) while part-time is up 600.
The silver lining to this data comes, perhaps surprisingly, from the Youth sector where Trend employment is up 6,200 for the year with a Trend unemployment rate that has fallen to 16.1%; this is still higher than the QLD average of 13.5% and has actually risen over the year as youth participation has grown very strongly. Also providing some minor encouragement is the fact that the Trend median time searching for a job in Cairns remains unchanged at 24 weeks; this is still longer than the QLD average, which at 21 weeks is the longest in the nation.
Even though these figures may see some revision in coming months, it appears clear that the dramatic improvement in employment conditions in Cairns may well have run its course for the time being.
To our south in Townsville the recovery continues, albeit at a slower pace. Trend employment rose by 800 in March and is now up 5,900 (or 5.9%) for the year. Most of the employment gains in Townsville are now in the full-time sector (+4,100) and participation continues to improve. As a result the Trend unemployment rate now sits at 9.5%. Employment growth in Townsville has come in both the Young and Middle-aged cohorts over the year.
The Trend median time searching for a job in Townsville has fallen sharply in recent months and now sits at 26 weeks.
As the chart below demonstrates, the overall strength of the labour markets (as shown by employment/working population) in Cairns and Townsville now appear to be moving in opposite directions. Cairns is coming off recent highs while Townsville continues to recover (slowly) from record lows.
The complete Conus/CBC Staff Selection Employment Trend data for QLD is available for download below. Please feel free to use this data (for non-commercial use) but please cite the source as “Conus/CBC Staff Selection Employment Trend” when you do so.
Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend Employment QLD – Mar 2018
We are proud to have CBC Staff Selection as supporters of the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend Employment and Jobseeker data series