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Despite the fact that the headline CPI for February dipped slightly from 3.8% to 3.7%, inflation is clearly still a problem. This monthly data read will not be showing the effect of the oil prices prices we have seen during March.
In addition, the Trimmed Mean measure of core inflation remained stuck at 3.3% (if there is a silver lining in all this it’s that in actuality Trimmed Mean fell from 3.33% in Jan to 3.27% in Feb).
The RBA have made it clear that at least for the time being they are focused on the quarterly inflation reads (until the new monthly series gets bedded-down). The release for the first quarter data is set for April 29th followed a few days later by the RBA’s next Board meeting on May 5th. The futures market are currently pricing in a further 25bps hike at either that meeting or the one following in mid-June.
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