- Telephone
- Email
The fourth quarter GDP data released this morning was broadly in line with expectations with a 3.4% q/q increase on the back of the previous quarter’s 1.9% decline (actually revised slightly better) which leaves us 4.2% up from the same period a year ago. Over the course of 2021 GDP was up 4.7% having been up 3.4% in Q3.
As the lockdowns in the third quarter were unwound it was always inevitable that the fourth quarter would see a sharp spike upwards. Nevertheless, this scale of recovery takes the annual rate of GDP growth to its highest level since the middle of 1999.
With the first two quarters of 2021/22 showing average annual growth over 4% we can expect to see something of a slow-down in the second half.
We noted last quarter that a large spike up in the household savings rate would likely unwind and lead to increased household spending when the lockdowns ended. That is exactly what we have seen with the savings rate falling from 19.8% in Q3 to 13.6% in Q4. Households went out and spent with household consumption up 6.3% q/q and contributing 3.2 ppts to GDP growth; the largest contribution since the immediate post-lockdown Q3 in 2020.
In Queensland State Final Demand was unchanged q/q for a year-on-year increase of 3.9% (after a revised 1.7% q/q, 6.0% y/y rise in Q3). This compares to Domestic Final Demand in Australia up 2.9% q/q. If we try and look through the fact that Queensland did not suffer from the sharp third quarter slowdown seen elsewhere, then we can see that performance across the last 2 quarters has been very similar (+1.6% nationally and +1.7% in QLD).
This quarter total Private Demand grew 0.6% q/q while Public Demand was down 1.7% q/q. Over the past two years both Private and Public Sectors have grown at very similar rates (Private +6.1%, Public +6.2%)
With GSP growth during 2021 running at 5.8% in Queensland we can see that the smaller impact from COVID-induced lockdowns in QLD allowed the State to outperform the national economy (where annual GDP growth was 4.7%) through the year.
Further details, along with an in-depth look at the Far North QLD economy is available in The CONUS Quarterly to download below.
We are proud to have CBC Staff Selection as supporters of the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend Employment and Jobseeker data series