Change to Conus Trend and Seasonal Adjustment series

Up to now Conus has used X-12-ARIMA for the seasonal adjustment and trend estimation of a variety of regional data sets, including the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment data. X-12-ARIMA was the successor to the X-11 method implemented by the US Census Bureau and is used by many statistical agencies around the world, including the ABS.

In the second half of last year  X-13ARIMA-SEATS, which utilises a seasonal adjustment method (SEATS – Signal Extraction in ARIMA Time Series) developed by the Bank of Spain, was released as a successor to X-12-ARIMA.

The X-12-ARIMA model is no longer being supported and we have therefore been working to incorporate X-13ARIMA-SEATS into all Conus Trend and Seasonally Adjusted series. The time has now come to make the change official! We have reworked all existing Conus X-12-ARIMA series using X-13ARIMA-SEATS and from our next releases these series will include some major revisions to previous months.

As an example, below is a demonstration of the revisions to this year’s employment data for Cairns SA4 from the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment series showing the ‘Old’ X-12-ARIMA and ‘New’ X-13ARIMA-SEATS Trend and seasonally adjusted data.

Thanks to our partners CBC Staff Selection, whose support has allowed us to commit the resources required to make these upgrades to our data series.

Responses

  1. Sally Mlikota says:

    June 15th, 2022 at 12:33 am

    Love your work!!

  2. Pete Faulkner says:

    June 15th, 2022 at 12:51 am

    Thank you Sally. Your support makes such a difference.

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