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The release this morning by the ABS of their original, unadjusted labour force data for regions allows us to update our Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend data for October.
With the State Trend unemployment rate sitting at 6.5%, up from 6.1% a year earlier, (see here for full national and QLD commentary) today’s release shows us that this weakness is coming primarily from the regions. Greater Brisbane’s Trend unemployment rate is unchanged for the year at 6.4% while in the Rest of Queensland we have seen it lift by 0.8% to 6.8%. Even more telling is the fact that this has been driven almost exclusively by Trend youth unemployment which is up to 16.3% (up 4.4 ppts for the year) in the Regions and 15.5% (up 2.2 ppts) in Greater Brisbane. Trend youth employment across the State contracted by more than 14,000 over the year despite an increase of more than 52,000 in general.
Across our own region Cairns has seen further Trend employment growth (up 200 for the month) to a new record high. Despite this, an increase in Trend participation saw the Trend unemployment rate lift to 6.3%. Nevertheless, Trend employment growth in Cairns remains robust (+11.0% y/y) and in particular full-time positions, which are up 13,500 in the past 12 months (at a rate of 17% y/y). In keeping with the story at the state level it is the youth sector which has been weakest. The Trend unemployment rate in the youth cohort sits at 13.3% with 1,100 fewer young people in employment than at the same time a year ago. 7-year participation rate highs are keeping the Trend unemployment rate more elevated than the strength of the labour market would suggest. The fact that the Trend employment per capita of working population measure is also at, or near, 7 year highs is evidence of that strength.
Unfortunately the same cannot be said for Townsville where the Trend unemployment rate now sits at 9.6% (up 3.1 ppts from a year ago) and the second highest in the state behind only the Outback (9.9%). While Trend employment growth over the year (2,300) is running at the same pace as the state average (2.1% y/y) this has not been sufficient to take up the significant labour market slack that still exists in the region. Only four-and-a-half years ago Trend employment in Cairns and Townsville were identical; today Townsville employs only 83% of the total that Cairns does. The graph above demonstrates that, despite some improvements since mid-2016, the region’s labour market is still struggling.
The Trend median duration of search for work is another indicator which highlights the difference between the two regions; in Cairns it now sits at just 9 weeks (down from 24 weeks a year ago) while in Townsville it’s still taking 19 weeks to find work (down from 32 weeks a year ago).
The full Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend data is availabel for download below. Please feel free to use this data but kindly acknowledge Conus/CBC Staff Selection when you do so.
Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend QLD – Oct 2019
We are proud to have CBC Staff Selection as supporters of the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend Employment and Jobseeker data series