Nothing much to be pleased about in June labour force data

Posted on July 18, 2019 by Pete Faulkner - Jobs, QLD, Uncategorized

The June Labour Force data from the ABS today provides little joy. Trend employment lifted by 26,300 while the seasonally adjusted series showed just a 500 tick-up. The Trend unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.2% (but on ly because May was revised up from 5.1%). The glimmer of good news was that full-time employment lifted by 21,100.

Things were worse in Queensland with Trend employment up 3,200 (seasonally adjusted fell by 8,200) and the Trend unemployment rate lifted to 6.3% (after May was revised up to 6.2%). The Trend unemployment rate in QLD has now increased from 6.0% since Feb. Trend employment growth remained at +1.6% pa in QLD versus +2.6% pa across the nation.

One of our favourite measures of labur market conditions is the hours worked per capita of working population; this ‘sees through’ issues arounf particiaption levels and the split between full and part-time work. This month we see that measure drop to 86.38 hrs in Australia (after May was revised down to 86.45 hrs) and to 86.15 hrs in QLD (May revised up slightly to 86.48 hrs). As the chart below makes clear, there’s nothing to suggest anything other than a weaker labour market at both state and national level.

Next week will see the ABS release the regional labour force data at which point we will also release the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend series for QLD.