Strong labour force data but QLD lags again

Posted on September 13, 2018 by Pete Faulkner - Jobs, QLD, Uncategorized

The August labour force data for Australia came in stronger than expected with a very solid lift in the number employed of 44,000 (market expectations had centred around 18,000) which saw the headline unemployment rate unchanged at 5.3% as participation also lifted slightly (all seasonally adjusted data). The vast bulk of the employment increase came in full-time positions (+33,700) and we have now seen full-time employment lift by 202,100 over the course of the past 12 months; or 66% of the total increase in employment. The Trend showed employment up 29,000 and the unemployment rate dropping from 5.4% to 5.3%. Trend employment growth now sits at 2.5% y/y.

Unfortunately the story in Queensland is less rosy. Here employment lifted by 11,900 (almost all of them full-time) but a sharp tick-up in participation saw the unemployment rate rise to 6.4% (the highest in the nation). While employment is up by 47,800 in the past 12 months, full-time positions are up 51,100 suggesting that the labour force may be in better shape than the headline numbers suggest. However, the fact that the Trend unemployment rate also lifted (to 6.3%) and is also the highest in the nation, can’t be seen as anything but disappointing. Trend employment lifted by another 7,000 in August but, quite simply, employment growth is not keeping up with the increase in the working age population and even with employment growing at 2.3% y/y there are 22,500 more people unemployed than at this time last year.

Another way we can consider the labour market is by looking at the average monthly hours worked per person of working age. This measure “see through” issues created by participation and the mix of part-time and full-time work by considering how much work is actually getting done by the entire working aged population. What it shows us is that across the nation as a whole this measure has gradually improved since early 2017, although more recently has been stable. The more volatile Queensland data (to be expected given the smaller sample size) hasn’t shown that same level of improvement. Indeed this month, for the first time, the average in Queensland has dropped below that in Australia.

This measure suggests that the labour force in Queensland continues to struggle despite some reasonable employment growth.

Next week we will see the monthly regional labour force and the quarterly industry employment data. At that time we will be updating and releasing our Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend and Conus Regional Industry Employment Trend series.