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There’s plenty of coverage this morning in the papers about the delayed release of the QLD Quarterly Work Force Profile for the Dec 2017 quarter (available here) which provides data on the size of the QLD Public Sector employment.
If we first consider the Headcount data….
When Campbell Newman’s LNP came to government in March 2012 the Public Sector headcount stood at 244,135, which equaled 10.7% of the State’s Trend employment number at that time. By the end of 2013 that percentage had fallen to a low of 9.9%, with headcount at 227,836 (a reduction of 16,299), on the back of the much-discussed “sacking” of public servants.
By the time the LNP lost the January 2015 election Public Sector headcount had risen again. This data is only provided on a quarterly basis so we can either consider the number from Dec 2014 (235,336, 10.2%) or from March 2015 (240,372, 10.4%) {The new ALP Government were sworn in on Feb 14th 2015, so we are assuming headcount of 237,854. 10.3% of total Trend employment at that time}.
The new Government went about replacing those Public Sector employees and by June 2016 the headcount had risen to 252,870 (or 10.7%).
It has since increased to 260,895 (Dec 2017) which represents a slight drop to 10.6% of Trend employment. So, since the ALP Government came to power in mid-Feb 2015 we have seen a headcount increase of 23,041.
Since Feb 2015 (to Dec 2017) Queensland has added 145,700 to Trend employment.
Let’s consider what the Public Sector headcount would have been under three alternative scenarios,
Scenario 1. Public Sector headcount remains at the same percentage level as when the ALP came to power in Feb 2015 (i.e. 10.3%)
Public Sector headcount would sit at 254,153; this would mean the sector headcount would be 6,742 lower than now.
Scenario 2. Public Sector headcount as a percentage of employment fell back to the lows seen under the previous LNP government (i.e. 9.9%)
Public Sector headcount would sit at 244,283; or 16,612 lower than now.
Scenario 3. Public Sector headcount returned to the same percentage level as when the LNP took over from the ALP in 2012 (i.e. 10.7%)
Public Sector headcount would now at 264,023; or 3,128 higher than now.
The “extra” Public Sector headcount can therefore be said to lie somewhere in the region between minus 3,128 and plus 16,612; or between minus 2.1% and plus 11.4% of the total increase in Trend employment to Dec 2017. Any suggestion that “all the jobs increases are in the Public Sector” is plainly inaccurate. Indeed, it is worth noting that this variance has decreased since we first did this analysis (for the June 2017 data) when we considered the spread of variance to be between plus 2% and plus 24%.
Next, let’s now take a look at the data from the perspective of the Full-time Equivalents (FTE) numbers and the Government’s fiscal principle of keeping public sector growth in line with population growth.
The March 2015 data showed Public Sector FTEs sat at 201,410 while in Dec 2014 the number was 196,857. Given the mid-Feb swearing in of the new ALP Government we shall use a FTE count of 199,134 as the starting point. By Dec 2017 that number had increased to 218,957; an increase of 19,823 or 10%.
The ABS provide us with population estimates for QLD on a quarterly basis, so using the Dec 2014 and March 2015 data we can assume a resident population in QLD as at mid-Feb 2015 of 4,761,828. We do not yet have data for Dec 2017 but, using the annual growth rate as it was for the Sept 2017 quarter (+1.67%) and applying that to the Dec 2016 data we can estimate a QLD population at the end of 2017 of 4,965,297. We have therefore seen a population increase of 203,469, or 4.3% since the ALP Government took over in mid-Feb 2015. This is clearly significantly greater than the Government’s own fiscal principle target. The difference equates to some 11,260 FTE positions by the Dec 2017 data.
In conclusion we can see that the Public Sector under this ALP Government has certainly grown at a pace well above that which would have met their own fiscal principle. However, to suggest that the strong employment growth seen in QLD over the past year and a half is all down to public hirings is plainly inaccurate.
If QLD population growth meets the anticipated 1.75% pa growth target over the next two years then by Dec 2019 QLD’s population will have grown by 7.95% since the ALP Government took power. To meet their fiscal principle that would mean that Public Sector FTEs should sit no higher than 214,964 by that time; in other words, some 4,000 below their current level. Given that it would seem highly unlikely that a ALP Government would cut Public Sector jobs in the run up to an election we can conclude that the Government will not meet its own fiscal principle over this term.
We are proud to have CBC Staff Selection as supporters of the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend Employment and Jobseeker data series