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TRA have released their latest Tourism Forecasts for the next 10 years (available here). They are forecasting total visitor nights to grow at a slower pace than over the past decade; down from an average of 4.4% pa to 3.0% pa over ten years to 2029. Growth in international visitors is forecast to be much stronger than domestic (5.1% pa versus 1.2% pa) for the next 10 years.
Looking at the data in finer detail we see Queensland is forecast to underperform the nation (2.8% pa versus 3.0% pa) with the underperformance coming in the international sector (4.9% pa versus 5.1% pa) while doing slightly better in the weaker (but much larger) domestic market (1.4% pa versus 1.2% pa). Full details of the 5-year breakdowns are given below.
International growth is forecast to remain robust on the back of a weaker A$, although a weakening international outlook, trade tensions and Brexit are likely to be brakes in the near term.
Domestic growth is only expected to be modest on the back of low wages growth and consumption spending married with higher fuel and air travle prices. Meanwhile the lower A$ should cause some Australians to subsitute international travel for trips at home.
| TOTAL | % pa | INTERNATIONAL | %pa | DOMESTIC | %pa | |||||||
| Australia | NSW | VIC | QLD | Australia | NSW | VIC | QLD | Australia | NSW | VIC | QLD | |
| 2009-2014 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 7.4 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 2014-2019 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 6.0 |
| 2019-2024 f’cast | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| 2024-2029 f’cast | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
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