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While the Trend unemployment rate in Australia remains remarkably stable (stuck between 4.0% and 4.1% for more than a year), we are seeing some clear signs of the gradual easing in the labour market coming from the JobSeeker data.
In March the Conus Trend estimate for JobSeekers edged higher to just under 980,000 (its highest level since Jan 2022) and is now up 11.9% from a year ago.
A similar, although less dramatic, story is playing out in Queensland where Trend JobSeekers are up 8.6% y/y and in Cairns where the increase is just 6.7%. It would seem inevitable that these higher number of people receiving JobSeeker payments will be reflected in the unemployment rate in coming months. The RBA and Treasury are expecting the unemployment rate to move higher towards 4.25% by the middle of the year and these JobSeeker numbers would suggest that expectation is realistic.
We are proud to have CBC Staff Selection as supporters of the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend Employment and Jobseeker data series