Today’s release of data for short term International Arrivals and Departures shows a continuation of the trend of Arrivals growing much faster than Departures; a sharp reversal of the situation from 3 years ago when the A$ was well above parity with the Greenback.
For July we saw Arrivals growing at 5.9% from the same month a year ago; for the 12 months to July Arrivals were 6.4% above the same period a year ago (seasonally adjusted).
Departures in July were up 3.9% from July 2014 and up 2.9% when we consider for the past 12 months; that compares with growth of 6.2% for the 12 months to July 2014. The slowdown in Departures growth that the weaker A$ has (at least partly) caused is marked even though they continue to hit new records. The gap between the 12 months totals, which had opened as wide as 2.34 million at the end of 2013, has now closed to 2.10 million.
The Chinese international market continues to be a major contributor and here we see (seasonally adjusted) growth at 11% from the same month a year ago and numbers up 20.4% for the 12 months over the same period a year ago. For the Chinese data we would prefer the Trend data (given the relatively smaller data set and subsequent volatile nature of the seasonal numbers) and here we see growth at 16% for July year/year and +20.5% for the 12 months to July. Either way we cut it the Chinese market continues to growth healthily.