Jobs growth slows in Cairns; Trend unemployment rate still only 4.2%

Posted on August 22, 2019 by Pete Faulkner - Cairns, Jobs, QLD, Townsville, Uncategorized

The release of the original ABS Regional Labour Force data for July allows us to update our Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend series for the Queensland SA4 regions.

While the Trend unemployment rate across QLD increased in July to 6.4% (see here for commentary) our Trend analysis estimates the Trend unemployment rate in Greater Brisbane is unchanged at 6.3% while the Rest of Queensland has ticked higher to 6.6% (from 6.5% in June). Trend employment in Greater Brisbane is up 33,800 for the year (at a rate of 2.7%) while employment growth in the Rest of Queensland lagged behind with just 17,800 added to the Trend (at a rate of 1.4%).

Across our own region, Trend employment in Cairns fell slightly (down 200) in July although it remains up 17,900 for the year at a very healthy pace of 15.6%. A slight increase in Trend unemployment sees the unemployment rate edge higher to 4.2%. The underlying, continued, strength in Cairns is highlighted by the fact that Trend participation stands close to record highs (67.6) and is up 7.0 ppts for the year. Trend full-time positions in Cairns are up 11,200 for the year.

In Townsville, although 1,400 were added to Trend employment in July the annual increase remains quite weak at just 2,500 (a rate of 2.3%) given the low base it has been coming off. Trend participation across the region is unchanged for the year (at 64.3) despite a spike up this month. The Trend unemployment rate, on the back of this month’s participation rise, has edged higher again to 7.8%.

The difference in the relative strengths of the two regions can be clearly seen when we consider the employment to working population ratio which shows Towsnville still struggling while Cairns has seen rapid improvements over the past year.

The full data-set of the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend can be downloaded below. Please feel free to use this data but kindly acknowledge Conus/CBC Staff Selection when you do so.

Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Trend Employment QLD – July 2019