The March data from the ABS released this morning confirm (to no-one’s surprise) that the slide in residential Building Approvals continues apace. Nationwide, the seasonally adjusted series showed a 15.5% m/m decline (after a 19.1% m/m increase in Feb); but it precisely this kind of wild volatility that makes us focus our attention on the Trend series. Here we see a 0.6% m/m decline which results in a fall of 22.4% for the year. If there is any silver-lining here it is that the rate of decline has slowed over the past three months…but only just. The rate of declines continues to be led by unit approvals which are down 31.2% y/y while house approvals fell 15.0% y/y.
It’s a similar story in Queensland, although without the possible silver-lining. The Trend series showed a 1.4% m/m fall which resulted in a 35.1% y/y decline. In Queensland the pace of decline has not slowed; indeed we are now at the equal fastest rate of decline. House approvals are down 23.7% y/y while units are off a thumping 51.7% y/y
Next week will see the release of the original, regional approvals data by the ABS which will allow us to update our own Conus Trend series for the QLD SA4 regions and our own Local Government Areas.