Solid labour force report takes focus off a rate cut soon

A robust labour market report for March has eased pressure on the RBA to cut rates any time soon. Employment lifted 25,700 while the Feb data was revised stronger (seasonally adjusted); Trend data showed a lift of 20,700 with Feb also revised slightly stronger. The unemployment rate remained at 5.0% (unch Trend and up from 4.9% sa). All up the pace of Trend employment growth has improved to 2.4% pa (from 2.3% pa in Feb).

In Queensland the volatile seasonally adjusted data paints a rather confused picture with the unemployment rate jumping to 6.1% (from 5.4% in Feb) despite a solid 10,400 new employed; the reason a spike in participation. If we instead focus on the more stable Trend data we see an extra 4,900 employed and the unemployment rate dropping from 6.0% to 5.9%. Trend employment growth has picked up slightly to 1.5% pa from 1.3% in Feb. Full time employment in Queensland in particular has been strong with Trend growth of 2.5% pa.

One of our favourite measures of labour market strength is hours worked per capita of working population, and here we we see improvements at both national and state levels. In Australia the measure has improved to 86.63 hrs (from 86.56 hrs) while in Queensland it now sits at 87.65 hrs, up from 87.53 hrs in Feb.

Next Wednesday will see the release of the regional labour market data at which time we will be updating our Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend data.

Leave a Response

  • © Conus Business Consultancy Services 2024

    Website created by RJ New Designs