Cairns projected growth

The Queensland Government projections of future population growth are an important indicator as they will be used to determine infrastructure planning into the future. The most recent version shows projections out to 2041 at both SA4 and LGA level; and this is what they tell us about the Government’s projections for our own region.

Cairns SA4 Level

From a starting point of 247,762 in 2016 the projections use three growth trajectories (low, medium and high) for population out to 2041.

The low growth rate sees an average rate of 0.80% compounded for 25 years to reach 302,461 by 2041.

The medium rate is projected at 1.27% pa which sees population rise to 339,547 by 2041.

The high growth rate is an average of 1.73% pa and sees population reach 380,152.

To put that in some perspective, the average rate of growth in the region between 2011 and 2017 was 1.18% so the medium projected rate is a little faster than the rate seen in recent years.

Local Government Areas

The range of growth rates projected varies enormously across the region. The medium growth rates across the Cairns SA4 region are;

  • Cairns Regional Council, 1.52% pa
  • Cassowary Coast Regional Council, 0.36% pa
  • Douglas Shire Council, 0.91% pa
  • Tablelands Regional Council, 0.70% pa
  • Mareeba Shire Council, 1.07% pa
  • Yarrabah Aboriginal Shire Council, 1.11% pa

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