The Chinese tourism boom is slowing

Today’s data from the ABS of Short Term Arrivals and Departures for June confirms the slowdown in the growth of Chinese tourism into the country.

While arrivals into Australia grew 5.4% y/y (seasonally adjusted) the number from China was unchanged (seasonally adjusted) since last year and up just 2.3% on a Trend basis…the slowest pace of growth since April 2009. When we consider the annual total to June it remains up 10.6% (Trend) but this is the slowest growth since May 2010. Chinese visitors numbers, for sure, remain elevated and at this stage there is no sign of them falling, but it is indisputable that the pace with which this crucial sector’s growth has slowed sharply in recent months.

When we consider the data on state of intended stay (which is presented by the ABS only as an unadjusted original series,¬†which has been greatly revised for the previous few months after what the ABS has called “quality issues with the capture and coding of state or territory of stay/residence from incoming passenger cards from March 2018 onwards“, from which we create the Conus Trend) we see good growth for Queensland (+8.3% y/y), although this is bettered by ACT (+20.0%), Tasmania (+11.7%), Victoria (+9.9%) and SA (9.0%).¬†

 

 

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