More bad news for TNQ in the National Visitor Survey

The June quarter National Visitor Survey from Tourism Research Australia was released this morning (see here for full details), and it confirms the deteriorating story for the region we’ve been discussing for some time (see commentary from last quarter).

Across the nation domestic overnight visits rose 5.2% y/y and were up 6.2% in Queensland. However, in our own region TNQ saw a decline of 4.0%. Of even greater concern is the fact that expenditure from those overnight visitors fell by 9.1% (which is more than a 10% decline when considered in real, inflation-adjusted terms). The average number of nights also fell from 5.11 nights year ago to 4.89 nights now. TNQ now accounts for just 1.93% of all Australian domestic overnight visits; its lowest share of the market since the post-Yasi period in 2011.

 

Domestic day-trips fared somewhat better and were up 2.6% y/y with expenditure up 0.8% y/y. However, this sector accounts for just 12% of total domestic expenditure in the region.

Overall total domestic expenditure (for both overnight and day trips) in TNQ fell 8.0% in the year to June 2017. With international expenditure in the region also falling slightly in June (down 0.4% y/y) despite the solid pick-up in international tourist numbers, we see total visitor expenditure in the region falling by 5.6% (or closer to 7.5% in real terms) over the year. This is a reduction in visitor spending of almost $200 million over the past 12 months and would go a long way to explaining the seeming disconnect between the “booming” tourism numbers being recorded and the reality on the ground for many operators in the Far North.

 

Cairns Conus Trend “Job Seeker” rate hits lowest in almost 3 years

Regular readers will be well aware that there are various ways to look at the labour market; the standard “unemployment rate” being just one of them. Another, less well known measure, is provided by way of the Dept of Social Services data in their monthly payment recipients release (available here).

When looking at the data for our region we sum the Dept of Social Service totals for the Atherton, Cairns, Innisfail, Mareeba, Mossman and Yarrabah Service Zones. These Service Zones, when taken together, may not precisely correspond to the Cairns SA4 region but are as good an approximation as we can get. Given the volatile nature of this original, unadjusted data series we have created a Conus Trend Job Seekers Rate using the trend number of payment recipients as a percentage of the Conus Trend Labour Force.

It needs stressing that how the Dept of Social Service count those who are seeking jobs and receiving allowances is very different from how the ABS define someone as “unemployed”. The rules around who receives what allowance also change over time so this is a data set that has to be treated with caution if making comparisons over periods when changes have occurred. As a result of these caveats we stress that the absolute levels may be difficult to reconcile with other measures, but the movements in Trends (at least over periods when rules don’t change) can provide us with useful supporting evidence.

It would seem that the improvements being seen in the Conus Trend series over the previous few years are being reflected in the Conus Trend Job Seekers rate which fell in July to 8% (from 8.1% in June). This has fallen from a recent high of 8.8% in Oct 2015 and is now at its lowest level since Oct 2014.

Regional Building Approvals; no joy for the North

The release of the regional building approvals data by the ABS today allows us to update our Conus Trend series for the SA4 and Local Govt Areas.

What we find is a story of slightly weaker, but generally stable, approvals in the North. The Cairns SA4 region sees Trend approvals stable at 77 after June was revised down from 80. Townsville SA4 falls slightly to 79 after June was revised up from 78 to 80. The picture at the LGA level is similar.

Cairns Regional Council (incl. Douglas Shire) fell to 53 after June was revised down from 56 to 54. Cassowary Coast Regional Council was stable at 6 after June was revised up from 5, Tablelands Regional Council (incl Mareeba Shire) was stable at 18 and Townsville City Council was also stable at 72, although June was revised up from 68.

The full Conus Trend data set is available for download below. Please feel free to use this data (for non-commercial use) but we would appreciate yoy acknowledging Conus when you do so.

Conus Trend Regional Building Approvals QLD – Jul 2017

Chinese visitors to TNQ fall for first time in almost eight years

Further data from TRA for the TNQ region highlights the concern we flagged earlier today. Over the past year the once-booming Chinese sector of the market has seen a decline in the region of 1.2%. Chinese visitors to TNQ fell from 216,726 in the year to June 2016 to 214,082 in the year to June 2017. This is the lowest annual number since March 2016 and is down 6.7% from the highs seen six months ago.

Visitor numbers from the USA continue to grow (up 5.5% y/y) along with Japan (up 5.4%). The UK has contracted over the past 6 months and is down 5.6% for the year to the lowest level since Dec 2015.

International Visitor growth leaves Queensland behind

Today sees the release of the June quarter International Visitor Survey from Tourism Research Australia (full report available here); and although visitor numbers are up strongly it’s not a happy story for Queensland.

Visitor numbers to Australia show a 8.7% y/y increase to almost 7.9 million (another new record high). Expenditure also rose strongly, up 10%, to almost $27.9 billion over the year. Average spend per visitor rose 1.1%, barely in line with inflation.

Queensland’s data was far less impressive. Visitor numbers rose 5.6% which was the weakest increase across all states and territories. Expenditure in Queensland was up an even weaker 3.2% (also the slowest of all states and territories) which resulted in average spend per visitor which fell 2.3% to $1,998. Queensland’s share of the total international visitor market has now fallen to an all time low of just 33.2%; it stood as high as 43% a decade ago.

In our own region, despite the impact of surging Chinese visitors, things are weaker still. Total visitor numbers to TNQ were up just 4.4% for the year while total expenditure actually fell by 0.4%. The average spend per visitor to TNQ is down a disturbing 4.8% over the year (in real terms this is in excess of a 6% decline). These are numbers that must be concerning for the new CEO at TTNQ and should give pause for thought to all those involved in the industry in the North. What is it that the region is not offering to international visitors such that the region’s share of the international market continues to languish close to all time lows?

We shall post further breakdown of the TNQ data once we receive more detailed numbers from TRA later today.

The June National Visitor Survey is due for release in a fortnight.

 

Cairns population growth beats Townsville in past decade; but both fall behind QLD

Data released today for Estimated Resident Populations in regional areas shows the population of the Cairns SA4 region climbed 18.1% in the decade to June 30th 2016 reaching 247,762. This was somewhat faster than estimated growth in Townsville SA4 which was +16% to 235,037.

However, both regions fell behind growth in the state which was 21% to 4,848,877.

Estimates for the Local Government Areas as at 30th June 2016 are;

Cairns Regional Council; 162,451

Douglas Shire; 11,997

Tablelands Regional Council; 25,312

Mareeba Shire; 22,157

Cassowary Coast Regional Council; 29,396

Townsville City Council; 192,058

Note: ERP figures are not equivalent to the 2016 Census data as the ERP includes estimates for Australian residents overseas as at June 30th, an allowance for Census under-count, relate to different dates (the 2016 Census was completed on 9th August), and does not include foreign short-term visitors to Australia.

Regional Jobs; more good news for the North

Today we saw the release of the ABS regional jobs unadjusted data for July. As always, we have to consider the Conus Trend data to make much sense of this highly volatile data-set; and what that shows us is a continuing good-news story in the North.

Trend employment in the Cairns SA4 region has increased by 800 in July to 120,200. The Trend unemployment rate has remained stable at 5.0% (but only after June was revised down from 5.3%). Trend Participation has also increased to 63.1 and is now at its highest level since Oct 2013. Over the year a total of 12,500 extra people are employed with 9,700 of those in the form of full-time employment.

In Townsville the ongoing recovery continues with Trend employment increasing by another 1,000 in July to 111,200. This is an increase of 15,700 over the past 12 months with 9,500 of those full-time positions. Trend unemployment has fallen again to 6.3% which is the region’s lowest since Nov 2013. Participation in Townsville has also increased in July to 62.7. Trend employment growth in Townsville now sits an annual rate of 16.5%, the highest in the state and well above the state average of 2.7%.

As we have been seeing for some time, the regions are beating Greater Brisbane in the race for jobs. The Rest of Queensland has added 45,100 Trend employment in the past 12 months while Greater Brisbane is up just 18,900. Trend employment growth in Greater Brisbane is running at 1.6% pa while in the Rest of Queensland it sits at 3.9%. More starkly, full-time employment in the Rest of Queensland is up 33,800 over the period while it has fallen by 12,700 in the capital.

Youth unemployment remains a concern in Townsville where the Trend rate of unemployment in the 15-24 year old cohort has increased to 18.7% (3rd highest in the state) despite 1,000 more Trend employed in the age group. In Cairns Trend youth unemployment also nudged higher to 11.5% in July but only after June was revised sharply lower from 12.6%; the region has added 3,300 new Trend employment in the group over the past 12 months.

The full Conus Trend data-set is available for free download below (for non-commercial use). We would appreciate you acknowledging Conus when you use it.

Conus Trend Regional Jobs QLD – July 2017