Is the Chinese tourism boom to Australia coming to an end?

The simple answer to the question posed above, at least based on ABS data for Sept released today, would be ‘probably’. The Trend data for short-term arrivals into Australia from China shows a 1.3% increase over the year to Sept, following on from a 0.9% increase the month before. To put that in some perspective, the year-on-year increases a year ago were running at close to 20%. A cursory glance at the graph below makes it clear that monthly visitor numbers from China have gone virtually nowhere for the past 12 months; particularly when seen against the almost-decade long ramp up in numbers that preceded it.

However, it’s also worth noting that there was a similar period of stagnation in growth back in 2016; although at that time year-on-year growth barely fell below 8% and the lull lasted only about 6 months…the current slowdown has been in place for 12. It’s for that reason my answer is ‘probably’ above rather than ‘definitely’, but as each month goes by it seems more and more certain that, if nothing else, the pace of growth of the Chinese market has slowed dramatically.

Of course this is of particular importance in my neck of the woods. The Chinese make up almost one quarter of all international visitors to Tropical North QLD, and that’s despite the fact that the number coming to the region has fallen year-on-year every quarter for the past five quarters! Indeed international visitor numbers were down a total of 4.3% in the year to the June quarter (latest Tourism Research Australia data) with the Chinese falling at a similar pace (-4.1%). Claims that the decline in visitor numbers is all part of some grand plan, with a shift to higher spending visitors, could ring true were it not for the inconvenient truth that total international visitor expenditure in the region also fell 2.8% in the year to June.

As a state QLD comes out pretty well in this latest ABS data. The Conus Trend of the ABS original state of intended stay data shows the Sunshine State managed a year-on-year growth rate of 8.8%, second only to Victoria which continues to lead the way. The Gold Coast Commonwealth Games in April will certainly have had some positive impact here, although looking at the raw data it’s rather difficult to see; indeed the best original data has come in July and August.

 

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