In discussing today’s CommSec and Deloitte reports on the Queensland economy (see here for some coverage), Treasurer Jackie Trad is claimed to have said that 85% of Queensland’s new jobs have been created in the private sector. Does the claim stack up against the data?
In determining the validity of Trad’s claim we’ve used the ABS Quarterly data for Industry Jobs for the year to November 2017 (latest available). The ABS provide the data at a State level only in its original, unadjusted form which we have Trended to create a more timely and relevant data-set (and to allow integration with our Conus Trend Industry Jobs series for the QLD SA4 regions….see here for latest info). We have also used ABS data which provides information on the split of Public and Private sector employment across various industry divisions (this data is only available as an original, unadjusted series for the nation. We have utilised 4 quarter averages to estimate the percentage of public and private sector jobs within Industry divisions).
From Nov 2016 to Nov 2017 the latest ABS Trend data for Queensland shows employment increased by 110,100. Our total of Conus Trend increases across all industry divisions suggests an increase of 110,400; an insignificant difference. Obviously many industry divisions have some Public sector component to them. but the vast bulk (>93%) of public sectors jobs fall into the following 5 divisions; Public Administration, Education & Training, Healthcare & Social Assistance, Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Services and Transport, Postal & Warehousing. Using the ABS data at a national level we can estimate that the public sector account for approximately the following percentages within each division;
- Public Admin; 79%
- Education & Training; 47%
- Healthcare & Social Assistance; 24%
- Electricity, etc; 11%
- Transport; 10%
Using these percentages and applying them to the Conus Trend increases seen in each of these divisions in QLD over the year to Nov 2017 we estimate that employment growth in the public sector for each industry division was;
- Public Admin; 4,000
- Education & Training; 3,800
- Healthcare & Social Assistance; 7,200
- Electricity, etc.; 300
- Transport; 1,400
This provides a total across these industry divisions of 16,700 new jobs from a total of 110,400. This equates to 15.1% which would suggest that Trad’s claim of 85% of new jobs coming within the private sector does indeed stack up against the available data.