SALM data supports improving picture in the North

On Friday the Dept of Employment released the latest Small Area Labour Market (SALM) data at the Local Government Area level for the quarter to Sept.

Using the unsmoothed (original) SALM data, which is tucked away in the explanatory notes section, we have created a Conus SALM Trend series of unemployment rates and derived employment for all the QLD LGAs.

This shows us that the Queensland LGA with the highest Trend unemployment rate (excluding Aboriginal councils) was Charters Towers Regional Council at 10.9% (which is down from 13.2% a year earlier) with Isaac Regional Council the lowest at 1.7% (down from 2.2% a year earlier).

While the SALM data does not explicitly provide employment data it can derived from the Labour Force and Unemployment data that is provided (although we acknowledge that the different methodologies used for the estimation of unemployment and Labour Force data make such a derivation problematic we consider that the estimated Trend based on this derivation provides a useful, albeit limited, indicator for employment trends). Once we create a Conus Trend for this derived data series we can compare this to the Conus Trend Jobs series (based on the monthly ABS Labour Force Survey data) to get an idea of where, within the SA4 region, we are seeing jobs growth.

For the Cairns SA4 region this analysis suggests that jobs growth for the year to Sept 2017 has been made up in the following proportions from the various LGAs within the region (these proportions are broadly inline with the population make-up of the region so suggest that employment growth across the region has been evenly spread throughout the various LGAs).

  • Cairns Regional Council – 64%
  • Cassowary Coast Regional Council – 12%
  • Tablelands Regional Council – 10%
  • Mareeba Shire Council – 7%
  • Douglas Shire Council – 6%
  • Yarrabah Council – 1%

The Conus SALM Trend unemployment rates across the region in Sept were (with June in brackets)

  • Cairns Regional Council – 5.9% (5.8%)
  • Cassowary Coast Regional Council – 5.2% (5.7%)
  • Tablelands Regional Council – 6.7% (6.6%)
  • Mareeba Shire Council – 9.2% (9.4%)
  • Douglas Shire Council – 4.4% (4.7%)
  • Yarrabah Council – 44.9% (45.9%)

Townsville City Council sees the Trend unemployment rate at 8.2%, which is a reduction from 8.7% in June (although this was revised up from 8.2%).

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