GDP growth disappoints as households tighten purse strings

The GDP data for the 3rd quarter of 2017 has come in slightly below market expectations at +0.6% q/q (after Q2 was revised slightly higher to +0.9% from +0.8%) for a 2.8% y/y and 2.2% annual growth. The weaker data was due to a poor showing from household consumption (the largest component of GDP) which was up just 0.1% q/q; the slowest pace of growth since the GFC impacted numbers back in 2008. The largest contribution to growth came from Private CAPEX which added 0.8ppts and was up 4.6% y/y.

The data for Queensland State Final Demand (which does not include any export sector) saw SFD up 0.2% q/q (+2.7% y/y and +3.0% ann). Again, it was the household sector that was the drag here; household consumption was up just 0.3% q/q which was the poorest result since the GFC-impacted Q3 2008 data. Private CAPEX grew at 1.3% q/q which is the best result since Q1 2012.

We are still waiting for QLD Treasury to release their quarterly Gross State Product data (obviously help up by the recent QLD election) but once released this will provide valuable insight into how the whole (rather than just domestic) QLD economy is tracking.

 

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