The ABS released their original, unadjusted regional labour force data for Sept this morning. We need to consider the Conus Trend series to make much sense of this highly volatile data series.
When we consider the split between the Greater Brisbane and Rest of Queensland areas we see that the recent trend of out-performance from the regions remains in place, although total employment growth in the capital was slightly better than the regions this month. The biggest divergence is seen when we consider full-time and part-time employment. Over the past year Greater Brisbane has added 38,200 to Trend employment, although all of those have been in part-time positions with full-time employment down 1,800. In the Rest of Queensland Trend employment has grown by 57,700 this year with fully 39,900 of those in the full-time sector.
Trend employment growth in the Rest of Queensland is now at 5.0%, which is the fastest pace in more than a decade. Greater Brisbane employment growth sits at 3.2%, which is still better than the national average of 2.8%.
In our own region we once again see the Trend unemployment rate in Cairns hovering around the 5% mark, the Sept Conus Trend unemployment rate sits at 5.2% (up slightly from a downwardly revised 5.2% last month). The Trend unemployment rate has been between 5.5% and 4.9% for the past 7 months with Trend employment stable this month but up 9,100 over the course of the year. As is the case for the Rest of Queensland, full-time employment has been the stand-out performing sector for Cairns with Trend full-time employment up 10,500 in the past 12 months (and up 600 this month) while part-time employment has dropped slightly.
Trend employment is growing at a very healthy 8.2% in Cairns.
To our south in Townsville there might be some concern that the recent stellar recovery is starting to look less resilient (at least so far as the headlines might be concerned). Trend employment edged higher (by 100) this month and remains up 15,500 higher over the past 12 months. However, the Trend unemployment rate is back up to 9.0% (after August was revised up to 8.5%) which may give some cause for concern. However, we should note that this is on the back of a rally in participation to levels not seen in more than 2 years.
Trend employment is growing at a state high of 16.0% in Townsville.
The youth sector, which has been of concern in the north for some time, now appears to have stabilised at more “normal” levels, at least in Cairns. Trend Youth Unemployment Rate now sits at 12.3% in Cairns (well below the rate in the Rest of Queensland and only slightly higher than in Greater Brisbane) with 2,700 Trend jobs added in the past year. In Townsville the sector has been a real cause for worry and continues to be, despite the overall recovery in the region. Trend Youth Unemployment Rate sits at 22.1% (the third worst in the state after Wide Bay and the Outback), despite having added 2,800 Trend jobs in the past year.
The full set of Conus Trend regional jobs data is available for download below. Please feel free to use this data (for non-commercial purposes). We would appreciate you acknowledging Conus when you do so.