The ABS released their (original, unadjusted) residential building approvals at the SA4 and LGA level this morning; and they reveal good news for the Far North. As always, this highly volatile data set needs to be seen through the lens of the Conus Trend to make any real sense of it.
When we consider the data at the SA4 level we see the original data for Cairns up at a more-than-9-year high. However, even when looking at the Conus Trend we see a significantly improved story. Trend approvals increase to 107 in August after July was revised sharply higher to 103. Trend residential approvals are now up 15.9% y/y; the best result since March 2015.
Unfortunately, to our south in the Townsville SA4 region things are not as rosy. Here Trend approvals fell in August to 75 after July was revised slightly lower to 77. Year-on-year Trend approvals are down 7.4%.
As the second chart below makes clear. the recent recovery in approvals across the state is coming largely from Greater Brisbane with the Rest of Queensland still lagging well behind.
We can also consider the Conus Trend data for the LGAs within the Cairns SA4 region and here we see that the improvements have been seen in Cairns Regional, Cassowary Coast Regional and Tablelands Regional Council areas. Cairns Regional Council Conus Trend approvals (incl Douglas Shire) rose to 77 in August after July was revised strongly higher to 76; year-on-year this represents a 30.3% increase. In the Cassowary Coast Regional Council (where the original data saw a higher number of approvals than in any month since June 2005) the Trend rose to 9 which is a 44.8% y/y increase. On the Tablelands (Tablelands Regional plus Mareeba Shire Councils) Trend approvals also rose to 21 after July was revised stronger; however approvals remain down 6.4% from a year ago.
In the Townsville City Council area Trend approvals fell to 69 after July was revised lower to 71; they are now down 5.5% from a year ago.
The full set of Conus Trend Residential Building Approvals for all the SA4 regions in Queensland is available for download below. Please feel free to use this data (for non-commercial purposes) but we would appreciate you acknowledging Conus when you do.