Cairns Watch even more bullish on Cairns employment

Last week our own Conus Trend estimates of employment and unemployment rate in Cairns for January had jobs up 8,000 since Jan 2016 and the Trend unemployment rate at 5.9% (see full details here).

Today sees the release of Herron Todd White’s Cairns Watch (available in full here); and its author, Rick Carr, is even more bullish on the Cairns jobs than we were. Rick has Trend employment up by 8,400 over the year with the Trend unemployment rate falling to a remarkably low 4.8%. While that unemployment rate looks a tad low to us, we cannot but agree with Rick’s overall comment that “Cairns overall continues to slowly improve with tourism and employment indicators having picked up a notch over the last month.”

This is Rick’s chart from his February Cairns Watch report.

 

2 replies
  1. Gene Tunny
    Gene Tunny says:

    I think he’s right to be bullish on Cairns employment but those trend estimates look like they’re too responsive to the noise in the data. Do you know what filter he’s using?

    Reply
    • Pete Faulkner
      Pete Faulkner says:

      I agree…they look a bit optimistic to me too. I don’t know what model or filter he’s using so it’s hard to say anything other than that our own Conus Trend has the rate at 5.9%…which I’m happy to stand by. Thanks for the comment.

      Reply

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