Although the ABS only produce Gross State Product (GSP) data for the states on an annual basis, the Queensland Treasury produces their own measure (on both a seasonally adjusted and trend basis) on a quarterly schedule. Treasury have now released their estimates for the first quarter (to March 2016). Commentary and graphs below are all based on the Trend chain volume estimates.
What we see is GSP up 0.5% q/q after some upward revisions to previous quarters (Q3 2015 revised up to +0.8% from +0.5% and Q4 2015 revised up to +0.6% from +0.1%). Taken together we see the annual increase up to +2.6% (from a revised +1.9% in Q4) which is the best result for 6 quarters.
The approximate breakdown of Queensland’s’ GSP shows us that Consumption (both household and govt) account for some 75%, Private Investment approximately 20%, Public Investment around 5% with Net Exports (both internationally and interstate) around zero.
For this most recent quarter Consumption increased 0.6% with households up 0.5% and Govt up by 0.8%. Private Investment fell 3.4% with investment in business falling 8.4%; Dwellings investment rose 4.1% but was not enough to offset the decline form business. Public Investment was up by 4%. Taken together this means that Gross State Expenditure was virtually unchanged for the quarter (+0.03%).
The Net Export position moved from a total deficit of $354m to a small surplus of $42m with the international Net Exports surplus (rising 19.9% to a new record high) being offset to some extent by the interstate Net Exports deficit increasing by 11.9%. This is the first Net Exports surplus in Queensland since Q2 2003.