Is 3.5% growth in Queensland for 2015-16 achievable?

The Treasurer’s last Budget forecast economic growth for the state in the 2015-16 year of 3.5%. Given the first quarter 2016 Gross State Product data we’ve just had from the Treasury (see here) on our calculations we will be needing to see Gross State Product increase by 2.6% in the second quarter to achieve that level of growth over the financial year.

We’ll get the national GDP for the second quarter tomorrow from the ABS (market expectations are for around +0.4% q/q) and the Queensland Final Demand (which doesn’t account for exports from the state), but we’ll have to wait until November to see the ABS Gross State Product number for the year (and until December before we get the Treasury quarterly estimate and their 2015-16 result).

It’s certainly not impossible, given the strength of our international exports (QLD’s Net Exports moved into surplus for the first time in 13 years in Q1 this year) but I would suggest that 3.5% target might be looking a little optimistic at this stage.

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