Revised and recalibrated FNQ LGA Trend building approvals

Yesterday we released our most recent Conus Trend building approvals data for all the Queensland SA4 Regions (see here). For some time we have also been providing Conus Trend estimates for the Townsville City, Cairns Regional , Cassowary Coast Regional and Douglas Shire Councils. However, we have not previously calculated for the Tablelands Regional and Mareeba Shire Councils. Today we correct that oversight by providing data for the Tablelands.

We also decided to use this opportunity to make some improvements to the rigour of the Conus Trend LGA series. We have extended the period of data we use to calculate the series by another 5 years (now back to July 2004). In addition, whilst we need to recognise that the Cairns SA4 Region does not align with the various Council boundaries and that, therefore, the sum of the LGA Trends does not necessarily equate to the SA4 Trend we have slightly adjusted our LGA Trends to allow for better consistency with the Conus Trend series for the SA4 Region; in much the same way that our SA4 Regions Trend series is adjusted slightly to allow for consistency with the ABS Queensland Trend series.

In order to allow for consistency of data over various amalgamations and de-amalgamations (and changes to ABS geographic standards) in recent years our Cairns Regional Council and Douglas Shire Council data are combined, as are the Tablelands Regional Council and Mareeba Shire Council.

With the addition of the Tablelands (incl Mareeba), the extension of the data set and the subsequent re-adjustment of the FNQ LGA Trends we now have the current Conus Trend data for April as:-

Cairns (incl Douglas); 72 previously 60
CCRC; 7  unchanged
Tablelands (incl Mareeba); 23

The Cairns SA4 Conus Trend for April stands at 107

Townsville City Council is also revised slightly; 67 previously 62

These changes and adjustments to the series suggest that the situation in Cairns LGA is somewhat stronger than our previous estimates indicated and is currently running at a 10.7% y/y rate of growth which is a little better than the Cairns SA4 Region as a whole (+9.4%). Prior to calculating the Trend series for the Tablelands we suggested yesterday that “strength in the Cairns SA4 area is being driven largely by the Tablelands and Mareeba Shires”. As it happens that statement proves to be half true, with growth in the Tablelands LGA a healthy 11.1% y/y but Cairns LGA also doing better than we thought yesterday. The Cassowary Coast continues to be the weak link in the region with approvals falling by 25.1% y/y.

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