GDP strong on exports. +3.1% ann

The first quarter GDP data released this morning has come in well above expectations largely on the back of export growth. The markets had been looking for seasonally adjusted GDP growth of around 0.7 – 0.8% q/q which would have given an annual rate of about 2.9%. The actual result was +1.1% q/q for +3.1% annual (Q4 data was revised slightly so the previous annual rate fell from 3.0% to 2.9%). On a Trend basis the increase was 0.9% q/q or +3.2% annual (Q4 revised up to +0.9% q/q and +2.9% annual). No doubt these are good numbers.

The main (indeed almost only) contributor to growth were net exports which added 1.2 ppts in the quarter. Household consumption added another 0.4 ppts while private sector investment deducted 0.5 ppts.

If we strip out the international sector then we see Domestic Final Demand up just 0.1% q/q and it is therefore little surprise to see no great strength in the state Final Demand numbers. Only NSW (+1.0% q/q) and ACT (+1.3% q/q)  showed any significant growth while WA fell 1.2% q/q with Queensland flat for the quarter (and down 1.8% annually). This is QLD’s best result over the past 7 quarters, although we are clearly still in an extended period of weakness.



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