Regional Building Approvals data disappoints; new Conus Trend series for QLD Regions launched

Today saw the release of the regional building approvals data for Feb from the ABS. As always, this unadjusted original data can be highly volatile so we should consider instead the Conus Trends.

Here we see the Trend for residential approvals in the Cassowary Coast Regional Council area static at 6 (after Jan was revised down from 7 to 6); this represents a 40% decline on the level a year ago. As has been the case for some time, the bulk of the approvals in the CCRC area continue to come from the Tully SA2 area (which includes Tully, Mission Beach and Cardwell).

In Cairns Regional Council (including Douglas Shire) we see the Trend fall to 69 (after Jan was revised slightly higher to 72 from 71); this equates to just a 2.3% increase from a year ago and a significant slowdown given that the annual increase has averaged almost 20% over the past 3 years.

In Townsville the deterioration appears to have eased somewhat with the Trend rising to 72 (with Jan revised up to 70 from 67); however this still means that the Trend is down 37.6% from a year ago and the annual change has been negative for the past 14 consecutive months.160411

To improve our coverage of the regional Queensland economy we have been working on the construction of Conus Trend series for residential building approvals for all of the SA4 regions. Today we are pleased to be able to launch that data set. The graphs below give some idea of how this data could be used and highlights the variation across a selection of the regions.

In particular the graphs below show;

  • the dramatic surge in approvals in both Brisbane – South and Inner City (even allowing for the wild swings caused by some big apartment approvals) while the rest of Greater Brisbane sees only modest improvements
  • the collapse in approvals caused by the unwinding of the mining investment boom in Rockhampton, Gladstone and Mackay regions
  • the spectacular GFC-bust on the Gold Coast and the recovery on both the Gold and Sunshine Coasts
  • the recent sharp decline in Townsville, and the very gradual recovery seen in Cairns which now looks to have run our of steam (note this data relates to SA4 regions and NOT the LGA data quoted above). Townsville has seen Trend approvals fall from 197 in Nov 2009 to just 74 now; the annual change (which has been negative for 14 consecutive months) is now at minus 68.5%

Further information on the Conus Queensland Regions Building Approvals Trend series is available on request.

 

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