Today’s release of the CAPEX data for the second quarter shows private capital expenditure still falling (down 4.0% from the previous quarter and down 10.5% from this time last year) but at a marginally slower rate than in Q1.
The main point of interest in the data however is the expected CAPEX figures. For the 7th (and final) estimate for the 2014-15 year we see expected investment at $150.6bn which is a 4.7% decline from the same estimate in 2013-14 but 0.5% better than the 6th estimate. Looking into the future the 3rd estimate for 2015-16 ($114.8bn) is 23.4% lower than the 3rd estimate for 2014-15 but 9.9% higher than the 2nd estimate. It will surprise no one to note that the mining sector is the main reason for the sharp falls in both years.
In QLD we see actual CAPEX in Q2 down 4.7% from Q1 and down 30.7% from the same time a year ago (i.e. significantly worse than at a national level…which is not surprise given the dominance of mining in the QLD economy). In Q2 (as measure in current prices) mining CAPEX in QLD fell 51.6% from a year ago while the comparable decline at a national level was just 23.7%. As we noted last quarter (see here) QLD is suffering disproportionately from the slowdown in mining investment.