Conus and HTW Trend unemployment rates converge

Following previous posts and media comment about the seemingly wide divergence between Herron Todd White’s and our own Trend unemployment rates for the Cairns region (see here) it is interesting to note that they have almost converged for the latest Feb data.

Yesterday saw HTW produce their Cairns Watch (available here) report and in it the HTW Trend unemployment rate is given as 7.9% (a decline from Jan, although since HTW do not publish their revisions we cannot be sure how much of a decline). Our own Conus Trend rate for Feb came in at 7.8%. (unchanged from Jan, which was itself revised slightly higher from 7.7%)

The relevant graphs for both are shown below for comparison.



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