Building Approvals hold up in FNQ

Despite the rather disappointing QLD Building Approvals data reported on last week (see here), the regional data released this morning shows that things are holding up OK in the Far North. The ABS produce raw (unadjusted) data for the Local Government Areas and this shows Cairns (incl Port Douglas) at 58 in Sept, Cassowary Coast at 7 and Townsville at 177. However, to get any real feel as to what is happening here we need to consider the Conus Trend series (which has undergone a major revision since last month…it would appear that the ABS are not the only ones subject to problems with their statistical models!).

The Conus Trend shows:-
Cairns approvals at 62 (unchanged from last month), +19.6% y/y
Cassowary Coast approvals at 9 (up from 8 last month), +54.5% y/y
Townsville approvals at 157 (up from 154 last month), +38.5% y/y

These contrast with Trend increases of  just 3.0% y/y across the State as a whole and just  1% y/y for Australia.

The SA2 level data for CCRC shows that, once again, the bulk of approvals (5 of the 7) have come from the Tully area (which includes Cardwell and Mission Beach).

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3 replies
    • Pete Faulkner
      Pete Faulkner says:

      I know what you mean. If I get some time I’ll take a look at the SA2 breakdown and see if we can spot something there. Thanks Mark.

      Reply
    • Pete Faulkner
      Pete Faulkner says:

      Mark, A look at the SA2 data for TSV shows us that the strong data for TSV comes down to 4 factors..
      1) Units account for 36% of approvals this year (171 in TSV versus 6 for CNS)
      2) 84 of those units are in Douglas where there has been an expansion of JCU accommodation
      3) 176 house approvals are in the Deeragun and Bohle Plains areas where new housing estates (most notable Innes Estate) are located
      4) Ignore units, Derragun and Bohle Plains and TSV has 128 approvals this year. Ignore units and Trinity Beach and CNS has 123 this year.
      Given the time lag between land development…building approvals…and actual construction the slow-down in TSV which the labour data seems to be highlighting would probably not be having much/any impact on the approvals numbers for some time yet.
      Would be interested in your thoughts.

      Reply

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